2023 Study: 3 Million Moves Driven by Extreme Weather Events Last Year

Displaced or Moved Permanently: Counting the Number of Americans Fleeing Natural Disasters

Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey puts the number of Americans displaced by a natural disaster at 3 million. This figure made national news earlier this year and represents the number of Americans who self-reported as being displaced from their home because of a natural disaster at some point in the past year. 3 million is a large number, but it’s worth noting that most displaced moves are temporary. According to the same survey data, 33% of those Americans who have been forced to leave their home due to a natural disaster at some point in the past 12 months return home within just a week.   A further 31% go back home within a month and 19% return after six months to a year away from their usual residence. 

That said, as of May 2023, 18% of Americans displaced by a natural disaster still haven’t returned home after 12 months. This is equivalent to 533,000 people needing to figure out life in a new place after their previous living arrangement became untenable.   If we look at more permanent moves, however, the number of people who moved due to a natural disaster in 2022 is around 88,000. This figure comes from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey which targets “...individuals who have usual residences elsewhere,” meaning it reflects the number of people who moved permanently.

The most likely reason for the discrepancy between the number of permanent movies and the number of those still home after 12 months is timing. Current Population Survey data was released in late 2022 and could have been too early to reflect the full impact of disasters such as Hurricane Ian. In turn, Household Pulse Survey from April-May 2023 would already include people who have been displaced by extreme weather events in late 2022 and early this year.

States With the Most Americans Affected

One state stands out in terms of how many of its residents have been forced to flee their homes because of a natural disaster: Louisiana.  7.5% of people once residing in Louisiana had to, even if temporarily, leave their homes in the wake of a cataclysm in the past year — that’s one in 13 people.

Why? Even though there weren’t any singular stand-out disasters here in the past year, parts of the state are still recovering from the damage caused by Hurricane Laura in 2020 and Hurricane Ida in 2021. The second most affected state is Florida, where 5.6% of residents found themselves displaced at one point or another in the past 12 months. And while Louisiana hasn’t experienced a major cataclysm last year, Florida had Hurricane Ian to contend with, which was one of the worst

hurricanes in U.S. history.

Kentucky (2.6%), Alaska (2.5%), Michigan (2.2%), and New Mexico (2%) are the only other states where the share of those displaced by disasters rose above 2%. Everywhere else, the percentage of residents who had to leave their homes due to a natural disaster was reportedly under 2% of residents.

Wind and Fire: Disasters that Displace the Most Americans

Between hurricanes, wildfires, and tornadoes, what extreme weather events cause the greatest number of Americans to uproot their life and move?

In absolute terms, it’s by far hurricanes that account for the lion’s share of displacements — 41%. Together with tornadoes, they are responsible for over half (51%) of all disaster-related moves in the United States. Meanwhile, wildfires are responsible for 23% of all displaced moves in the past year, while floods account for 26% of such moves, depending on the source. Events such as earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic activity also contribute to the displacement of people, though at smaller scales.

Impacts Per Type of Disaster

Despite hurricanes causing most of the displaced moves in the United States, their impact tends to be short-term. The share of those displaced by hurricanes that return home within a month is 67% and only 10% are displaced for more than a year.

On the other hand, 45% of those who escaped wildfires can’t return home even after a year of being forced out. Tornadoes have the second displacement effect with a quarter (24%) of those who had to move out because of a tornado still aren’t home after 12 months away.

Location-Based Insights:

• Louisiana (7%) and Florida (5.6%) have the highest proportion of people displaced by a natural disaster in the last 12 months
• Texas is the destination for 37% of all disaster-driven interstate moves since 2005
• Texas (58), Tennessee (51), and Mississippi (48) are the most welcoming states, with the highest ratio of disaster refugees per 10,000 people
• New York (2.7), Kentucky (2.8), and New Jersey (3) have the fewest incoming displaced moves per 10,000 residents

How Far and Where To: Top Destinations of Displaced Moves

Compared to regular moves for work or family reasons, permanent moves caused by a natural disaster tend to go a bit farther, or, at least historically.  Since 2006, two-thirds (65%) of Americans who move tend to stay within the same county, compared to just over half (55%) of those displaced by natural disasters stay nearby.

Conversely, 25% of those who moved due to a natural disaster went to a different state, compared to 15% of non-disaster-related moves, figures from the Current Population Survey show.  It’s these longer-distance moves of those displaced by an extreme weather event that reveal an interesting pattern. Since 2006, 37% of Americans who had to resettle outside their state as a result of a natural disaster went to one state – Texas.  Not only is Texas by far the most common destination for moves made by those fleeing a natural disaster, but it’s also the state with the highest number of disaster refugees relative to the local population (58 per 10,000). Tennessee (51) and Mississippi (48) follow as the second and third states by the number of domestic disaster refugees per 10,000 local residents. Other states that have welcomed a significant number of displaced Americans include the three Midwestern states of Missouri (30), Wisconsin (28), and Michigan (26). Rounding off the top 10 are Arkansas and Georgia — both with 24 resettled Americans per 10,000 local residents since 2006.

New York (2.7 per 10,000 people) and Kentucky (2.8) are the states with the lowest intake of displaced Americans compared to the local population, followed by New Jersey (3), Connecticut (3), and California (3.2), where the share of disaster-displaced new residents to the local population is around 3 per 10,000. To see how many Americans displaced by natural disasters each state welcomed, check out our interactive map.

Tides of Change: Moves Forced by Disasters Over Time

The number of Americans who moved due to a natural disaster hasn’t reached the level of Hurricane Katrina since then. That storm was a cataclysm that claimed over 1,000 lives,  forced over 1 million people out of their homes in late August 2005, and is generally considered one of the costliest cataclysms in U.S. history.   But there have been some spikes of displacements of over 100,000 that have coincided with U.S. natural disasters, such as Hurricane Ike in 2008, Hurricane Florence in 2018, and the California Wildfires of 2019.

The Current Population Survey data reflect more permanent moves, meaning the true number of people who were forced to move temporarily due to various cataclysms is likely a lot higher.  Fortunately, most Americans who had to flee their home due to a natural disaster eventually return home.

Sources and Methodology

Figures on the number of Americans that have been displaced by a natural disaster in the past 12 months, their place of residence, how long they were away from their homes, and what event caused them to leave their homes were all taken from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey.

Statistics on the number of Americans who were forced to relocate due to natural disasters over time, the length of their moves, and their destinations were taken from U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (as available via IPUMS.)

U.S. Census Bureau’s state population estimates were used to calculate how many natural disaster refugees each state accepted per 10,000 residents.

Illustrations by Jiaqi Zhou